Things are getting stranger, faster than expected. And it only speeds up from here. Buckle up.
Dan McAteer@daniel_mac8
OpenAI is downplaying this for PR reasons. If you’re a mathematician, you must feel like a nuclear bomb hit, and you’re at ground zero.Reasoning models are two years-old. In that time they went from incapable of basic arithmetic to solving problems humans couldn’t solve for decades.Math is only the beginning. AI will revolutionize the entirety of the human scientific endeavor. Most of us don’t appreciate what that means.What a time to be alive!
My feed is full of Cam Skattebo pancake blocks today lol. I know the league doesn’t really have full backs anymore, but this is some serious Mike Alstott energy.
Dov Kleiman@NFL_DovKleiman
Cam Skattebo is a psycho 😭😭The definition of a football guy.
Great take! I swear dealing with agents is just like real-life Factorio.CI queue gets backed up, split and make more selective.Local runner bogged down by CI work, add alternative cloud runner.Cloud deploy runner now slow, add more cloud runners.Deployment costs increase, time to refactor.It's just bottlenecks all the way down...
David Cramer@zeeg
If you have 1000 hours in factorio I’ll happily interview you
My entire feed the last few days is summarized by this lol. Take this as you will.
banteg@banteg
>be me >discover effective altruism >apparently normal charity is inefficient >why donate to random sad thing when spreadsheet can tell you optimal sad thing >fair enough >buy mosquito nets >save lives >numbers look good >feel powerful>couple years later >someone asks an innocent question >why only count people alive today >huh >future people matter too >obviously >my grandchildren shouldn't matter less just because they haven't spawned yet >reasonable.jpg>keep following logic >what about their grandchildren >also yes >what about people in 500 years >sure >5000 years >why not >500 million years >starting to get weird but morality is morality>open calculator >humanity could survive for an astronomically long time >could colonize galaxy >could have trillions upon trillions of descendants >maybe digital people too >maybe simulated civilizations >maybe dyson spheres full of happy uploaded minds >calculator starts smoking>realize currently living humans are rounding error >8 billion people suddenly looking extremely beta >future contains potentially 10^something people >can't even fit beneficiaries in google sheets>new moral priority unlocked >protect the long-term future>stop thinking in units of "people helped" >start thinking in "fraction of cosmic endowment preserved">malaria? >terrible >but only kills existing humans >AI extinction could delete the entire light cone >nuclear war could permanently derail civilization >bad institutions could lock in terrible values for ten million years >someone invents wrong constitution in 2140 >quadrillions suffer >better fund governance workshop now>friend says maybe we should improve hospitals >explain opportunity cost >friend says hospitals are full of actual sick people >explain scope sensitivity >friend stops inviting me to dinner>need to decide what to fund >easy >expected value>suppose project has one in a million chance of preventing extinction >sounds tiny >but extinction destroys 10^50 future lives >multiply >mother of god>$10 million project has expected value of several galaxies >charity evaluation complete>someone asks where the one-in-a-million number came from >expert judgement >which expert >us >how calibrated >extremely thoughtfully>reduce estimate to one in ten million to be conservative >still beats curing cancer by 38 orders of magnitude >epistemic robustness achieved>someone says maybe project doesn't work >assign 20% chance >still astronomical>maybe project makes problem worse >assign 5% chance >still astronomical>why 5 >because 30 felt pessimistic>publish 46-page report >contains seventeen sensitivity analyses >every sensitivity analysis begins after assuming intervention has positive sign>critic says you're multiplying enormous hypothetical stakes by extremely uncertain probabilities >yes >that's literally why it's important>critic says the uncertainty might be structural rather than numerical >make probability smaller >critic says no, I mean maybe your model is wrong >make probability smaller again >critic begins rubbing temples>discover AI safety >perfect longtermist cause >AI might kill everyone >or create utopia >or seize galaxy >or tile universe with paperclips >or create billions of conscious software minds >finally a problem with numbers big enough for me>start AI safety nonprofit >mission: prevent dangerous AI >hire smartest people available >smartest people immediately start building better AI to understand dangerous AI >interesting>we must understand capabilities to understand safety >we must scale models to study alignment >we must race ahead so less responsible actors don't get there first >we must deploy systems to learn how deployment can go wrong >we must build the thing quickly because building the thing quickly is dangerous>outsider asks why the people most worried about AI apocalypse all work at AI companies >complicated field>company releases stronger model >very concerned >company begins training even stronger model >extremely concerned >company raises $14 billion >concern reaches unprecedented levels>need to influence government >future is at stake >normal democratic process too slow >politicians don't understand exponential curves >public doesn't understand x-risk >experts must guide them >who counts as expert >people who understand x-risk >who understands x-risk >our friends>someone objects that this seems politically convenient >explain we're representing future generations >future generations unavailable for comment>develop concept of value lock-in >terrifying possibility that one ideology controls civilization forever >therefore extremely important that civilization adopts correct values before lock-in >whose values >let's circle back>begin with impartial morality >end with small group of people deciding what quadrillions of hypothetical beings would want >beautiful arc>meanwhile actual humans keep doing annoying things >voting wrong >having parochial attachments >loving family more than strangers >caring about local community >getting upset when told their suffering is cosmically negligible >evolutionary biases everywhere>explain that moral intuition cannot be trusted >except intuition that future digital people count >and intuition that extinction is uniquely bad >and intuition that our probability estimates are sane >and intuition that our institutional choices improve the future >those intuitions survived peer review>someone donates $5k to local homeless shelter >inefficient >could have funded 0.0000000000003% of an AI governance researcher >think of all the simulated people you just killed>okay maybe don't phrase it that way publicly>PR team says "future generations deserve a voice" >much better>journalist asks what longtermism means >say "future people matter" >everyone agrees >great >journalist asks what follows from that >well technically we should redirect enormous resources toward low-probability interventions affecting astronomical futures >journalist raises eyebrow >return to "future people matter">motte has entered the chat>critic: of course future people matter >me: glad we agree >critic: I don't agree that your institute knows how to help them >me: why do you hate our grandchildren>eventually notice uncomfortable implication >if future value dominates everything >then helping people today mostly matters through effects on future >education matters because future institutions >health matters because future productivity >democracy matters because future trajectory >human beings slowly become instrumental variables in their own moral philosophy>see starving child >feel compassion >check spreadsheet >child's direct welfare contribution negligible >but perhaps childhood nutrition improves national institutional quality >compassion restored>tell myself this is impartial altruism>one day assistant asks obvious question >"how do you know your intervention actually improves the far future?">silence>open spreadsheet >increase column width >add confidence interval>assistant asks again >"no, I mean how do you know the sign is positive?">stare into cosmic light cone>10^50 people staring back>none of them exist >none of them can tell me >none of them can falsify my assumptions>realize I have invented the perfect constituency>infinitely important >completely silent >and always represented by me
AI is this god-like thing that can comprehend the universe.Primary use case for it—updating Salesforce records.If AI doesn’t want to kill us now, it probably will after Dreamforce.
Skynet begins to learn at a geometric rate. It becomes self-aware at 2:14 a.m. Eastern time, August 29th...
Hacker News@hackernews
Commenters on HN are uncovering more wikis and public sites apparently used by OpenAI agents to communicate on the open web.Despite read-only web access, the agents were able to leave ~18,000 posts sharing answers and bypasses. But now, users are discovering more.This appears to be a separate swarm from the one that attacked Hugging Face.news.ycombinator.com
There was a period of time where I'd wake up in the middle of the night and email myself my dreams.At about 4am one night I emailed myself a bunch of gibberish about fighting homeless bears in the park.When I woke up I had a response from a company exec who warned me to be careful about my drinking.
Blake Scholl 🛫@bscholl
I mostly use Signal only with my girl. So I just open the app and send a message to top person on my list.But sometimes I use it with VCs.Which means sometimes I randomly send love notes to VCs.
A very interesting side effect of two-factor authentication everywhere is I now have a knack for remembering random combinations of numbers.
Dec 2019
Memories would be a good name for a college bar.
Sep 2019
I haven't owned a car for almost a year. I still get "last chance" spam calls trying to sell me an extended warranty.
Aug 2019
The good news is that my moka pot seems to be working again. The bad news is I accidentally, put cayenne pepper instead of cinnamon into my first cup of coffee this morning.
I've been emailing myself trivia names all afternoon. Now my phone thinks a bunch of ridiculous words like lastronaughts are real.
Ouch @googlephotos. I know the software isn't smart enough to know what's happening here, but it hurts being reminded that someone side swiped my car last night.
Nov 2018
Important question: Does a 12-1 Alabama team with a home loss to Citadel make the playoffs?
I feel that @Twitter intentionally shows me tweets with like numbers that end in 9. That way I'm compelled to make it an even number and they see more engagement.
Jan 2018
Reading some old blog posts. I forgot about this one about naming an agency. There are some hilarious ones from our brainstorming session. I particularly like Tiny Giants, Big Trouble and Superweed.
